Core Takeaway
AI hardware is still in a post-washout defense phase, but today's marginal signal is better: TSM retested NT$2500 intraday, showing some support for Asia's core AI asset.
The memory chain is not fully repaired. MU is still changing hands near 1000 on heavy volume, SKHX remains weak, and DRAM / SNDK have only shown less downside pressure, not clear active buying.
Market Structure
TSM is stronger than MU. 2330.TW touched NT$2500 intraday before easing back near 2470/2475, shifting the short-term setup from failed breakout to a second test of key resistance.
MU 1000-1050 is the most important memory-chain zone this week. Holding and moving sideways would suggest the first washout is close to done; breaking 1000 could invite more technical selling.
Crypto is firm, especially HYPE, which shows risk appetite has not collapsed. But MU and SKHX remain weak in equity perpetuals, so a crypto rebound is not the same as confirmed AI semiconductor repair.
Trading Frame
Medium term, AI bottleneck assets still matter: TSM, MU, HBM/DRAM, advanced packaging and equipment. Short term, price comes first: TSM needs to hold 2500 and MU needs to defend 1000-1050.
META's compute-monetization narrative continues to reshape pricing. Platforms get rewarded for revenue paths, while the hardware buildout chain must prove GPU rental pricing, utilization and CapEx returns.
This week's confirmation checklist is simple: MU above 1000, TSM above 2500, and SKHX / SNDK / DRAM no longer falling on heavy volume. Until then, the stance is medium-term bullish but short-term cautious.